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Fraida's
Blog
October 2, 2008 - Market Update
Sold and closed homes in Albany County for September
'08 numbered 158 which was down from 202 in September
'07. Average days on market remained the same at 60 and
average and sellers were realizing on average the same
in September '08 as in September '07...96.4%. The
average sale price was significantly higher at $256,000
vs. $219,000. It appears more higher priced homes
sold last month. The 3rd quarter year to date numbers
show an 18% decline in the number of homes sold and
closed from 1910 through September 30, '07 to 1561
for the same period this year. Days on market (68)
and the percentage of asking price sellers were
realizing (97.2%) stayed the same from 3rd quarter '07
to 3rd quarter '08. Average sale price slipped 1%
from $238,833 in "07 to $235,483 this year.
The current inventory level in Albany County dropped
slightly from a 7.3 month supply of homes on the market
last month to a 6.7 month supply this month. There
are currently 1393 homes on the market vs. 209 that went
pending in September '08. Home mortgage rates
continue to hold in the low 6% range and underwriting
criteria remain strict.
September 3, 2008 - Market Update
Sold and closed homes in Albany County for August '08
were 210 down from 256 last August. Average days on
market remained about the same at 60 this August vs. 62
last August and sellers were averaging 97.1% of their
asking price this August vs. 97.5% last August.
Year to date closed sales in Albany County through
August 31 were down 20% from the same period in
'07, 1367 vs. 1708. Days on market for August 31 year to
date were 69 days this year vs. 68 days last year. The
sale to list price ratio fell from 97.4% this year
compared to 97.8% last year. Average selling prices have
fallen about 3% from $241,000 in '07 to $233,000 this
year to date.
With regard to current inventory levels in Albany
County as of September 1, 2008 we have a 7.3 month
supply of homes on the market (1368 active listings vs.
187 pending contracts in August). If inventory of
available homes holds for another month or two at this
level we will be in a buyer's market. Home
mortgage interest rates continue to hold in the 6.25 to
6.5% range for 30 year fixed rate mortgages.
Underwriting criteria have become more stringent and
buyers must be carefully qualified as underwriting
criteria are constantly changing.
August 4, 2008 - H.R. 3221 is Signed into Law
On July 30, the President signed into law the
"Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008".
While there are a number of provisions aimed at reducing
the risk of foreclosure for individuals and various
reforms affecting the FHA program and Freddie Mac and
Fannie Mae, there is one provision that may be
significant to home buyers. "Qualified" home
purchases during the period April 8,2008 and June 30,
2009 will allow the purchaser to claim a $7500 tax
"credit" on their federal tax return. The
"credit" is repayable over 15 years, in effect
making it an interest free loan from the federal
government.
August 4, 2008 - Annual Real Estate Conference
Fraida and Tony just returned last week from the
annual Star Power real estate conference in Orlando
which was attended by 1200 of the top 1% of realtors
in
the U. S. and Canada. Attending this conference for each
of the past 10 years has enabled them to stay at the
cutting edge of the real estate industry as they
compare notes with some of the top performing realtors
in North America. Many markets around the U. S. are
adjusting from the highs achieved during the 2002 - 2005
period. The markets that had the greatest price gains
are now having the greatest price reductions as the
supply of homes for sale are well in excess of the
current demand for homes in most markets (although not
all, Charlotte NC to name just one). Short sales
are becoming common in some markets as sellers and
lenders work together to get homes sold and closed.
Seller's are generally faced with the the reality that
today they are in both a "beauty contest" and
a "price war", that is, they have to have the
best looking house with the best price among the
competition in their price range.
August 4, 2008 - Market Update
July '08 showed 65 fewer homes sales closed than the
previous July in Albany County (191 vs. 256) and down 7
from last month (191 in July '08 vs.198 in July
'07. The average price increased from $251,000 in
July '07 to $256,000 this past July but average days on
the market increased from 52 last year to 60 this year.
The sale to list price ratio was unchanged at 98%.
At the beginning of this month of August there were 1363
single family homes on the market in Albany
County. Pending contracts in last month (July)
were 172 (vs. 225 last month) which indicates a 7.9
month supply of homes on the market. This is up from
last month when there was a 5.9 month supply of homes.
The market velocity (the rate at which homes are
selling) has slowed some this month resulting in the 2
month increase in the supply of homes. A six month
supply of homes is generally considered to be market
that is in balance (neither a buyer's or seller's
market).
When the supply of homes exceeds six months for several
months in a row then it is considered to be a buyer's
market. Interest rates are still in the mid 6%
range, which is still historically low although lenders
underwriting criteria have generally tightened as a
result of the sub-prime credit problem.
July 3, 2008 - Market Update
June '08 showed 96 fewer home sales
closed than the previous June in Albany County (198 vs.
294) but up from 146 last month. The average sale price
fell form $248,000 to $235,000 and average days on the
market increased from 62 to 67. The sale to list price
ratio declined slightly from 97.8% to 97.5%. The
first half numbers show 908 Albany County homes sold and
closed this year vs. 1193 during the first half of last
year. The average selling price was down slightly during
this period from $233,000 last year to $230,000 this
year. Average days on market are the same at 72 and the
sale to list price ratio is off slightly from 97.7% to
97.2%. Pending Albany County contracts in June '08
(signed purchase contracts) numbered 225 against an
inventory of 1338 homes resulting in a 5.9 month supply
of homes. This is down slightly from May where we had a
6.4 month supply of homes on the market. Albany
County does not have the excessive inventory many other
areas of the country have at this time. Thirty year
fixed mortgage rates for excellent credit borrowers are
currently in the 6.25 to 6.5% range. Jumbo loans
run about 1/2% higher.
So far this year, Fraida Varah Real
Estate Group seller's are averaging 1% more in selling
price and selling their home 1 month sooner than the
average Albany County home seller.
June 2, 2008 - Market
Update
May '08 showed 75 fewer
home sales closed than the previous May in Albany County
(146 vs. 221). The average price increased from
$224,000 to $238,000 but the average days on market
increased from 60 to 82. The average sale to list price
ratio also declined from 98.4% to 96.8%. June's
numbers will likely be better as indicated in the
pending contracts number in the previous post below.
May 28, 2008 - Market
Update
Preliminary numbers for
May indicate that there are currently 1275 active single
family homes on the market in Albany County and they
have been on the market an average of 126 days. So
far there are 200 single family homes that went under
contract so far this month and they have been on the
market an average of 63 days. Average sale price so far
this month has been $250,000.
May 28, 2008 - Market
Update
April sales results for
single family homes in Albany County showed that the
number of houses sold (closed) in April declined from
184 (April ' 07) to 160. Both the average and median
sales prices also declined. The average sales price was
$225,000 for this past April compared to $237,000 for
April ' 07. The sales price to list price ratio also
declined slightly compared to last April from 97.1% to
96.9%. However, the house that sold sold a little
faster as the average days on market also decreased from
84 to 66 days.
May 28, 2008 - Market
Update
During the first quarter
of 2008, both the average and median single family house
sale prices in Albany County held at the same level as
the first quarter in 2007. The average selling price
during the first quarter of this year was $230,000 in '
08 compared to $228,000 for the first quarter of ' 07.
The sale price to list price ratio dropped slightly
during the first quarter of ' 08 from 97.4% to 97% but
the average days on market also dropped from 80 to
75. Even though the number of closed sales during
the first quarter dropped from 494 in ' 07 to 367 this
year, the number of homes on the market this year
compared to last has also dropped resulting in stable
sales prices. Mortgage rates continued to be in the
6% range for thirty year fixed mortgages.
February 11, 2008
- 2007 Market Summary
With all the negative media coverage of the national real estate market, it is important to keep in mind that real estate market conditions are local in nature and that the national numbers are aggregates of hundreds of markets across the country. The national and local numbers that are reported are never put in context so let’s do that now for the local Albany County Market.
The number of closed residential sales in Albany County in 2007 was 2476, down 5% from 2006. The average selling price in 2007 was $236,459, up about 4% over 2006. Now let’s put these numbers in perspective. The average number of closed residential sales each year in Albany County since 1998 is 2531 . Closed residential sales during this period have ranged from a low of 2259 in 1998 to a high of 2799 in 2004. Average Albany County sale prices have increased from $132,735 in 1998 to $236,459 in 2007, that is an increase of 78% over the last 10 years or an average increase of 7.8% per year. The number of Albany county residential listings during the past 10 years has ranged from 3,022 in 2003 to 3,850 in 2007, averaging 3504 per year during that time. During the last 10 years, 30 year fixed mortgage rates have ranged from 7% to 5.5%, hitting a high of 8.5% in 2000. Rates during this period were significantly below the rates experienced during the 1980’s and 1990’s. The current 30 year fixed mortgage rate is now below 5.5%. The last time they were at this point was August of 2003 which was the first time fixed rates were below 6% in over 50 years.
The bottom line is that the Albany County market is a very stable real estate market and with interest rates currently at historic lows it is a good time to be buying or selling a home in Albany County. There is currently a window of opportunity for buyers. These low mortgage rates cannot be expected to remain at this level for more than the next 6-12 months.
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